I just attended a seminar sponsored by KHOV at the Warren 55+ community. The speaker was Jeffrey Otteau of the Otteau Valuation Group, the leading analyst that looks at the NJ real estate market. I have talked about him before, as he has a huge following as he examines SOLD data and UNSOLD inventory.

He began by saying that this is a “window of opportunity” for buyers and sellers. There are 10,000 fewer homes on the market than last year, the lowest since the high inventories of ’07,’08 & ’09.
There is pent up buyer demand, homes are now more affordable with lower price AND lower interest rates and the incentives of the federal tax credits as I mentioned before in my previous blogs.
This is the time for sellers to get the best prices and buyers the best “payment”. Just FYI, for every 1% increase in interest rate, a buyer will lose 9% of purchasing power (or another way to say it is, it will now cost that buyer 9% more for the SAME house. Mortgage experts say that in preparation for the government ending their support of keeping interest rates artificially low at the end of March 2010, bond prices have already started to edge up. Many believe we will be at 6.5% interest rates in no time. It is/was foolish for buyers to wait until the last minute to capitalize on the federal tax credit deadline of going under contract BEFORE April 30, 2010, before the making their home purchase, as you will now have to pay more.

He reiterated that the recession most likely ended in Oct 2009, but we won’t see confirmation on that until this summer 2010. We are in a housing recovery and prices have stabilized! In NJ, the 1st quarter of 2009, prices went down 12%, 2nd quarter – down 10.4%, 3rd quarter – down 7.4% and 4th quarter – down 6 % compared to the 12 months prior.

More good news…In 2009, no increases in foreclosures in NJ.

We are now back to end of 2004 housing prices. Last year, pricing was down a gentle 4-5%.
When comparing to other states in the US, NJ has outperformed US average, up 129% since 1991. A very nice investment. NY has increased 105% and CA only 66% over the same time period.

Mr. Otteau admits that the future of the housing market in the 2nd half of 2010 is still questionable. The tax credit will now be gone, interest rates will be higher, prices have edged up a little higher—about 2% this year. The job market is still not clear. Thus a “slump” could begin in July 2010.

Regarding commercial real estate, NJ has suffered about a 5% loss as compared to Atlanta GA suffered a 50% loss of value.